Yes, Tom Izzo, Michigan State is actually quite dead
by Dave Ryan on Feb 16, 2011 11:55 AM EST
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Tom Izzo wants to inspire confidence in his underachieving Michigan State bunch. That's why he keeps on repeating things like "we ain't dead yet" and "we're gonna make a run at it." But seriously, who is he really preaching to? Mike Kebler? Austin Thornton? Because from our vantage point this is a very, very dead team.
Even Durrell Summers, one of Izzo's best players, looks to have both mentally and physically checked out. I couldn't help but think of Connecticut's Jerome Dyson and his hilariously bad body language while watching Summers sulk on the bench last night. He no longer deserves court time because of how bad he's been, and that concept is quite unreal if you look at his career numbers. With all of the turmoil that has plagued this school in the past year, Summers' untimely disappearing act might just be the last straw.
In the meantime, the Spartans have become a predictable 2-man offense with Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green running screens up top. Issues arise here because Lucas consistently settles for long jumpers from just inside the three-point line, despite being a moderate shooter from that range. Defenses are baiting him into it, and he's jacking up the lowest percentage shot on the floor at will about a half-dozen times per night. When MSU's offense is struggling to get the ball inside, these Lucas bricks are sometimes the best looks they end up getting.
Nobody else seems capable of stepping up and making shots on a consistent basis, which is something Izzo relied heavily upon with guys like Summers, and *gasp* Korie Lucious, and even *gasp* Chris Allen. And while there might be some hope with Derrick Nix, who impressed in the first half last night, we're still talking about a guy who's more likely to do serious damage at an all-you-can-eat buffet than he would in the post for 30 minutes vs. elite competition. You can't just boot two of your top six players off your roster and expect to patch up the holes as you go along. Doesn't work that way.
And that's just the play on the court. When it comes down to the numbers, the big boy measuring sticks if you will, it's probably generous to say the Spartans are hanging by a mere thread. Remember, this is a 14-11 team we're talking about. They are sub .500 (6-7) in Big Ten play, and still have to face Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa and Michigan. All of those teams except the Gophers have already beaten MSU once this season. Is the law of averages supposed to kick in four more times on State's behalf? Does anybody, with a straight face mind you, really believe the Spartans can win out?
After the seeds were announced on Selection Sunday last year, The Dagger's Jeff Eisenberg highlighted four of the biggest snubs:
1. Illinois (19-14, 10-8, RPI: 73): Five marquee wins over the likes of Vanderbilt, Clemson, Michigan State and Wisconsin (twice) were apparently not enough to outweigh the Illini's bloated RPI and poor finish to the regular season. Illinois did finish a game ahead of conference rival Minnesota in the Big Ten standings, but it lost to the Gophers in the regular season and bowed out of the conference tournament a round earlier as well.
2. Virginia Tech (23-7, 10-6, RPI: 56): Despite defeating both Georgia Tech and Wake Forest and finishing above both of them in the ACC standings, the Hokies did not make the field and the Yellow Jackets and Demon Deacons did. The reason is Virginia Tech's pitiful non-league strength of schedule, which was among the worst in the nation. Then on top of that, the Hokies lost in the first round of the ACC tournament to a weak Miami team.
3. Mississippi State (23-10, 9-7, RPI: 55): The Bulldogs certainly looked the part of an NCAA tournament team in an overtime loss to Kentucky on Sunday afternoon, but their profile didn't stand up well to close inspection. Although defeating Florida and Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament helped Mississippi State's case, the Bulldogs still only had two top-50 RPI victories all season and also suffered bad losses to Auburn, Rider and Western Kentucky.
4.Seton Hall (19-12, 9-9, RPI: 61): Although Seton Hall didn't have a bad loss all season, the Pirates still had way too many of them. Victories over Pittsburgh, Louisville and Cornell helped their cause, but a neutral-court loss against fellow bubble team Virginia Tech without Hokies star Malcolm Delaney weighed down their profile like an anchor.
The important team of note is Illinois, who went 10-8 in the Big Ten, beat four really good schools (and Wisconsin twice), and managed to post 19 wins. Their stumbling block came down to poor play late in the season and an admittedly bad RPI of 73. Noted.
So even with four more teams in the field offering a slightly higher chance at a bid, the Spartans would need to go 4-1 down the stretch to even match Illinois' 10-8 record, which appears to be the benchmark. Their current RPI sits at 49, a number that is very much borderline for a school devoid of a standout resume. Izzo's crew can only attest to three quality wins at the moment too, and lest we forget: They are an abysmal 1-7 on the road. I'm not even sure there is a number that can make Michigan State look like a tournament caliber team right now. Every valid measurement under the sun disagrees with them.
Look, the Spartans are currently on a 30-day nosedive. Players are quitting on the team. Worst of all, their resume is in complete shambles and could go ignored by the committee. Izzo has a strange history of underwhelming lately in Big Ten Tournaments (hasn't won since 2000), and considering the circumstances, that might be the most damning evidence of all.
Don't believe what you've heard, Michigan State is absolutely dead. Durrell Summers pulled the plug last night. I saw it happen.
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Not sure what game you were watching last night
But it definitely wasn’t the MSU-OSU game. No, watching highlights courtesy of ESPN doesn’t count. I watched the whole game, and I saw a Spartan team finally come to play, outplaying the number 3 team in the country, and were absolutely hammered by the homerism of the officiating. Attempting only five threes the whole game, outscoring the Buckeyes by over 20 points in the paint, they went to the line only six times, with Ohio State taking 29 free throws. Tell me how to reconcile those numbers.
Who are you to criticize one of the best coaches in the game? If he says they aren’t dead, they aren’t dead, and some no name blog writer saying otherwise doesn’t change anything.
Watched the entire game, and then re-watched multiple plays and key sequences again after it was over. Never saw a single ESPN highlight, either. Send my regards to Josh Elliot or somebody. Unbelievable, I know.
As for OSU, I can assure you that they aren’t called for fouls very often because they simply don’t commit them at the rate of other teams. There’s no conspiracy here. Don’t blame the officials. The Buckeyes have doing this to people all season long. It’s also a bit short-sided to look at the final numbers and then try to conjure up why OSU got to the line and MSU didn’t. Just because a team has a higher ‘points in the paint’ statistic than their opponent it doesn’t mean they are unjustly not being sent to the free throw line.
utter bullflop
What a gigantic pile of bullcrap you are shoveling. “They simply don’t commit {fouls}”. That’s like saying a football team never holds. What an utterly idiotic argument. I watched the game several times myself and you sir are a liar. The Buckeyes committed multiple uncalled fouls. This was home cooking all around.
Now that is not to say that FT’s were the only reason MSU lost. They contributed quite well with untimely turn-overs and poor offensive play calling, especially late in the second half. But statistically speaking it is damn near impossible to score so much in the paint and have that few fouls committed. No one is THAT frigging good.
As for MSU, I can assure you that they are far from dead.
Dave Ryan, you are a pathetic excuse for a sports writer. The Jay Marioti of college basketball.
Okay,
Why do you people join a blog to troll? MSU went from #2 to TERRIBLE. Sorry, but when coaches (a la Steve Kragthorpe) start pulling out cliches like this, a team is dead. THis is not Izzo’s fault, but the players are not playing up to par.
SIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVAAAAAAAAAAA
Terrible
blog. The points made throughout this blog would have been valid after the MSU-Iowa game or MSU-UW (in Madison) game. The team as a whole looked as if they were throwing in the towel during and after those games. HOWEVER, since then, MSU has put together two of their best overall performances of the season. They blew out a very good Penn State team and outplayed arguably the best team in the country in almost every aspect of the game (save for free throws and turnovers).
In terms of the “predictable 2-man offense”, I have to second Ozymandias’s question…did you really watch the game last night? MSU’s bench outscored our starters almost 2-to-1 in the first half and, ultimately, accounted for almost 45% of the total points scored.
Finally, considering last year’s Fighting Illini Big10 record “a benchmark” for this year’s bubble teams is just plain ignorant. First of all, the “bubble” is MUCH softer this year for a number of reasons, but I’m sure you know that being a big time sports blogger and all. Secondly, MSU will have a much higher RPI and SOS by the end of this year than Illinois last year. Finally, MSU only has one truly bad loss this year (Iowa). Last year, Illinois dropped games to Bradley, Utah, Georgia, Northwestern and a blow out loss to Missouri. Apples to Oranges.
You do make a couple decent points. Summers has in-fact pulled a disappearing act. MSU will need him to pull it together to make a run in the tournament. In my less-than professional blogging opinion, I think Izzo has done a pretty darn good job of remaining relevant given the circumstances. He lost his best perimeter shooter and defender (Allen) and an explosive (yet inconsistent) play maker (Lucious); five of his players under went surgery during the offseason; and his team played arguably the most difficult schedule in the country.
SB Nation should do a better job screening who they let blog on their site…this was terrible.
This is what I take issue with
Don’t believe what you’ve heard, Michigan State is absolutely dead. Durrell Summers pulled the plug last night. I saw it happen.
I’ll be the first to admit MSU looked as bad as it’s been during the Tom Izzo era against Iowa and Wisconsin. I have no idea what’s wrong with Summers, but it hasn’t been limited to this game. It absolutely looked like this team was dead.
However, MSU beat a feisty Penn State team convincingly before the Ohio State game. This game was competitive until the last 5-10 minutes, and because of this, they’re “absolutely dead”? The majority of brackets at Bracket Project have MSU in the NCAAs.
I don’t think the Illinois comparison is fair; it’s been mentioned already that the Illini’s RPI last year was in the 70s while MSU will probably be somewhere in the 40s. Iffy, but nowhere near the killer the author claims it is. A better comparison might be Minnesota, who ended up 62 in the RPI and made the tourney on the shoulders of a Big Ten tournament run. Many said the Golden Gophers wouldn’t make the tournament either, but Championship Week acts in weird ways. I’ll concede MSU hasn’t played well in the Big Ten tourney in recent memory, but stranger things have happened.
My main point is this — A hobbled MSU competed with a top five team on the road for most of the game, and that’s enough to declare them “absolutely dead”? It sounds like the writer opted for a strong opinion instead of a researched one. That’s not good writing to me.
Did someone pay you to write this?
Really? If so, congratulations. You just got away with robbery. This is a post by an anti-Izzo troll. Just a matter of which fanbase he’s a member of.
Clearly, it’s a bad MSU team. Worst in 14 years. But pretty much every bracketologist at least has the Spartans in the discussion. Absolutely dead? Clearly, that’s what you’re hoping for. Did Izzo steal your lunch money or something?
Just answered my own question.
The writer is listed on his own profile as a Michigan fan. Credibility lost.
Boy, what a hack you are.
Incredibly, you’ve been proven wrong. Color me surprised. You seemed so knowledgeable and unbiased in this article.
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