To satisfy the degenerate gamblers that follow the purity of college basketball, we will be providing our shot out of a cannon thoughts behind a few select games every night.  What better night to begin with than tonight, the NIT Preseason Tournament Tip Off Classic, presented by Dick's Sporting Goods.  We will keep tabs on our selection so that you will know whether to side with us or go against the grain.

-Selections are underlined-

Coastal Carolina @ #8 Duke Blue Devils (-28.5), 7pm ESPNU.  We'll reluctantly take the Blue Devils.  Coach K is best at covering early in the season but we don't think too highly of the Blue Devils this season.  This could be a team to make some cash on later in the season, betting against.

Colgate @ #14 UCONN (-27.5), 9pm ESPNU.  This one should be a cake walk for the talent loaded team out of Storrs.  Don't be fooled by Colgate returning five starters; those starters only amounted a 10-20 record last year, good enough for 5th in the Patriot league.

Auburn (-4) @ Missouri St.  Auburn has the athleticism to make this a 20 point game by halftime and we think it will be.  Sometimes it seems too easy.

Miami (OH) @ #5 Kentucky (-20), 7pm E360.  John Wall makes his debut tonight and we're thinking he will put up the 20 extra needed to cover.  This one will be a fast paced game, so we might even think about touching the over on this one as well.

Yale @ Hofstra (-6.5). The Ivy league visits the CAA.  It doesn't change the fact that it is the Ivy league playing out of conference.  Free money.

Kentucky, Kentucky, Kentucky!  That’s about all you’ve heard about since Luther Vandross dropped those angel whispers of One Shining Moment on us back in April.  Yes, Kentucky has the talent to be observed as the outright favorite to win the National Championship but there are a handful of other worthy opponents that can interrupt a bluegrass march through March.

Mississippi State and Tennessee provide the dangerous combination of experience and talent.  Both programs biggest loss in the off season was probably a concessions employee and we’re positive that won’t be enough to cause for a first round exit like last year (MSU to Washington, UT to OK ST).  South Carolina carries five seniors and arguably the best point guard in the conference in Devan Downey.  Of course, we sidebar the previous statement with the ability to hold an exception based on the unproven Jesus Shuttlesworth John Wall of Kentucky.

The Commodores of Vanderbilt and Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators are sophomore heavy but possess the cohesion required to play spoiler on any given night.

After the newly acquired Calipari takes Rupp Arena, we’re sure the hype will fall true behind the broad shoulders of our pick to take home Conference Player of the Year honors, Patrick Patterson.

Where there is hype, there is Hocus Pocus and we think that the Southeastern Conference could be most wide-open races.

Our breakdown is after the jump.

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So UNC cut down the nets last spring, lost 68 percent of their scoring, lost the nation's top point guard and the nation's blandest spokesman for AT&T, yet their still top dogs in the ACC. Sometimes, college basketball stinks. The Tar Heels return Ed Davis and one of the top recruiting classes in the country. It used to be that Duke would capitalize on such an opportunity, and once again be king of the ACC Castle. Not so fast. The biggest threat to the Heels this season is probably a balanced Georgia Tech team who may have the best center in the country in Derrick Favors. Maryland wants to mix it up too, with Greivis Vazquez and two frontcourt freshman in James Padgett and Jordan Williams.

From there the conference gets mediocre fairly quick. Clemson seems to get high praise, but when you look at their last six games from the previous two seasons, the Tigers were 4-8.

Our breakdown is after the jump

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The thrill of being a mid-major, or a "non-BCS conference" might be fading. Just three years ago, pundits were declaring that the field between David and Goliath had been significantly shortened. The Missouri Valley had four teams in the tournament and were 6th in the conference RPI rankings, George Mason threw everyone for a loop by winning the East Region, and VCU was breaking Blue Devil hearts.

Now, some are wondering what happens next. Yes, teams like Butler, Gonzaga and Xavier are always going to be kicking around, and are unfortunately handcuffed from not having a big-time football program that gives them clearance into a major conference. Memphis is sort of in their own world, a bit of an anomaly but a premier school when it comes to recruiting...at least when John Calipari was coach.

At best, the talent in small conferences is cyclical. After thumbing through the preview mags for this season, we may be looking at only a pair of non-BCS conferences that receive multiple bids (A-10 and C-USA). With that, we should still look forward to ESPN's BracketBuster Weekend. Tulsa could be a nice story, Siena will look to build off last season, and Oakland could play deeper into March than all the afroementioned schools. It's just a hunch we have.

Our breakdown is after the jump

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• Kalin Lucas - AJ Price:  Lucas has stepped up to the plate for Tom Izzo's troops, looking to have the ball when the game is on the line.  Lucas' Big Ten Player of the Year status will not be taken lightly.  Price on the other, has always been "the man" for the Huskies.  As the floor general and mass distributor of apples, Price also serves as the most deadly threat from beyond the 2+1 arc.  Price left last years tournament prematurely with an injury in the first round loss to San Diego but Price's determination to go the distance has carried the Huskies this far and we think he will make it one more. Advantage: Price.
• Travis Walton - Craig Austrie:  Let them shoot.  Neither of these two pose a major threat on offense.  Austrie has only touched double fig's once since the injury to Jerome Dyson.  Travis Walton is a defensive fortress, leading the team in steals.  However, Walton is stuck in the early 1900's, not realizing the three point line exists.  The 6'2" Walton has only taken five three's on the year.  Starting Division I guard that has only taken five three pointers on the year? Wow.  Reiterate: Let them shoot! Advantage: Pick 'em.
• Delvon Roe - Stanley Robinson: Roe is usually the first palyer to exit stage left for the Spartans.  His two surgically repaired knees have barely been able to motor him to 4 points a game in the tournament, shooting the ball a mere 10 times in four games.  Robinson is a dunking machine, always finding himself on the receiving end of a wide open set up at the front of the tin.  Robinson can blow up at any given moment and make Thabeet look like the supporting cast.  Advantage: Robinson in a landslide.
• Raymar Morgan - Jeff Adrien: Michigan State is feeling pretty good about the fact that they made it to the Final Four while Morgan was a non-factor.  To say that Morgan has struggled, would be a massive understatement.  Morgan has been beaten up during the season by mononucleosis and pneumonia and now the broken nose he suffered last weekend won't improve his 8 for 26 shooting and 5.8 ppg in the tournament.  Adrien doesn't pose as a major threat shooting the basketball but if his 15 footer is falling, it will make it difficult to stop this athletic and lengthy swingman.  Adrien can really lock it down on defense, inside or outside. Advantage: Broken nose yeilds to Adrien.
• Goran Suton - Hasheem Thabeet: The 6'10" Suton sacrifices five inches to the monster in the middle of the UConn defense, but who doesn't?  Suton has the girth to move Thabeet around a bit and his second weekend point average fell just short of 20 a clip.  We don't expect that against the best interior defender in the nation but he will be a factor.  If you havn't heard the name Hasheem Thabeet yet the you must be too busy following the undefeated Lady Huskies.  Thabeet swallows up shots in the paint, averaging 4.3 "return to senders" per contest.  Advantage: We'll take the 7'3" Thabeet 9 out of 10 times.
• Bench:  Michigan State has relied on the play of Draymond Green, Chris Allen and Durrell Summers during the slouching play of Roe and Morgan.  Summers and Allen have consistenly performed well on the offensive end, as top five scorers for the Spartans.  UConn's bench was called on earlier than Jim Calhoun would have liked with the loss of Jerome Dyson.  Kemba Walker tore up the elite defense of the Mizzou Tigers for 23 points and Gavin Edwards has been a mainstay on the front line.  Advantage: Spartans.
• Which school would make for a better weekend visit:  Well for starters, remember that the Spartans are playing in their backyard.  Detroit may be the most triffling major economy in the United States but that wouldn't prevent the Spartan students from creating a massive bar bashing in their home away from home.  Storrs has not been known for their stellar stunners in the female department but if Diana Taurasi came back to bong a few beers in honor of the men's AND women's trip to their respective Final Fours, we'd like to be there.  Advantage: Sparty and local watering holes.

So who's going to win?  UConn has looked too strong all season and coupled with the idea that Mich St. has out punted their coverage after defeating Louisville, they're just playing with house money.  It tough to see the Huskies being slowed down, so we'll say  "Goodbye Sparty, you can walk home!"  Thabeet dominates Suton and the Huskies steal a 10 point win in Detroit.

***For more statistical analysis on this Final Four match-up, check out StatSheet.com

• Ty Lawson - Scottie Reynolds:  Predominant speed vs. predominant strength and toughness. Lawson has played near flawless basketball this tournament, with only one 2 turnovers and 20 assists.  That's a 10:1 assist to turnover ratio huh!!!  Reynolds numbers aren't overly impressive in the tournament, but he just seems to be riding this incredible wave of momentum.  Numbers don't lie though, so it's advantage Lawson.
• Wayne Ellington - Reggie Redding:  Ellington, much like his high-school teammate turned Dukie Gerald Henderson, is a player we have waited to just break-out and start ripping ish up.  The Final Four would be quite the stage to show off his smooth stroke.  Despite this, he still sees more floor time than any of his teammates, so you know Roy Williams values him.  Redding, however, also leads his team in minutes, and has morphed into the Wildcats' defense stopper.  A key match-up here, and we will go out on a limb and say advantage Redding.
  
• Danny Green - Dwayne Anderson:  Danny Green is that guy you dread the night before playing him.  He's multi-dimensional and difficult to scout becase he can do so many different things to impact a game.  Anderson has reinvented himself, after nearly transferring, and become the coaching staff's favorite with his "stats that don't show up in the stat book."  Intriguing to see if either player will generate offense, but advantage Green.
  
• Deon Thompson - Shane Clark: Both players generally go unnoticed, and  Thompson has become the guy who tests the waters for Ed Davis (much like the relationship had between Jawad Williams and Marvin Williams back in 2005).  Both players need to stay out of foul trouble to have any sort of imprint on this game.  Advantage Thompson.
  
• Tyler Hansbrough - Dante Cunningham: Advantage Cunningham; just because we hate the name Tyler Hansbrough.  Sorry.
• Bench:  The greatest strength of Villanova is their ability to insert the Two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) had have little to no drop off in production.  UNC would love to counter with a Marcus Ginyard or AJ Graves, but they're not around.  Some people have said Roy Williams is hiding Ed Davis from the NBA by limiting his minutes.  I doubt he will be thinking that way at the FInal Four, so Davis could really be a factor this weekend.  On paper Nova can't counter with anything inside, but it didn't seem to matter against Pitt, so advantage Wildcats.
• Which school would make for a better weekend visit?  Well we've heard VillaNoFun is a well-deserved nickname, but good God we have had some lame encounters with UNC students. A tough call but we'll head to Nova then catch a cab and escape to Broad St. in downtown Philly.

So who's going to win?  North Carolina can't get this far and blow it once again...right? Nah we don't think so, as Lawson continues his great tournament run, Danny Green has a spectacular game, and Ed Davis steps up big by logging a double-double.

***For more statistical analysis on this Final Four match-up, check out StatSheet.com

Memphis and Missouri are teams that play fast and furious.  Missouri's style is the self proclaimed "fastest 40 minutes in basketball," but the Memphis Tigers just hung 89 on the Terps.  When the gun sounds at the beginning of the game it will be the team that can control the tempo that should emerge as the victor.  Look for the adjustment in coaching style to be a tell-all sign.

If you can get past looking at the Shane Battier-esque ripples on JT Tiller's noggin, you will notice identical make ups of athletic swingmen.  Both teams boast a bevy of 6'7"ish slasher/defender combos that will cancel each other out. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Mizzou will press early and often, but the Memphis Tigers wrote the book on defensive effectivness.  Memphis is third in the nation in points allowed and first when it comes to defensive field goal percentage.  The product of the parts will be the story of this game and a back and forth battle will ensue.

Around the web...

• Ron Higgins; Memphis Commercial Appeal: There's pressure in the air on Thurday night.
• Feeling overlooked is just where Mizzou wants to be according to Cormac Gordon.
• Mike DeArmond; Kansas City Star: Each team will essentially be looking in the mirror when they take the court.