The NBA Draft is a murky abyss of uncertainty.
According to a recent study conducted by ESPN, NBA franchises selecting fifth select a player who yields a 6.1 EWA (estimated wins average), while the franchise selecting sixth sees the average EWA drop to 1.9.
The margin of error in a draft that is only two rounds for a sport that fields 12 players to a team is essentially none.
And while they're isn't much question if the future is bright for one of the NBA Draft's top prospects, there is a wide range of opinions as to just how effective Kentucky's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be at the next level, and if he's really worth the second overall pick of the Charlotte Bobcats.
Naturally, the second pick is a slot usually reserved for franchise-shifting players. An elite playmaker who can develop as the team's centerpiece for the next 8-10 seasons.
While MKG clearly possesses the skill set to enjoy a long and successful NBA career, he is not a franchise player.
You're not getting a player who, assuming you become a playoff team in 3-5 years, will lead you in scoring or develop into the centerpiece to your rotation.
You're getting something very different than that, as if Kidd-Gilchrist gets selected by the Bobcats with the number two pick, as a number of pundits are predicting with skepticism, it will not immediately fix anything for such a struggling franchise.
MKG is jack-of-all-trades but a master of none. He's a low usage player who scores a majority of his points in transition (where he's incredibly efficient) and on the offensive glass.
He possesses the intangibles to suggest he's destined to be a key cog in a title winning team at some point in his career, but he'll never have an isolation play called for him when the game is on the line.
The Bobcats are a franchise in disarray, both on and off the court. Moral is low and attendance is even lower. It's a situation where "the future" doesn't need to be solved this year, but a paradigm shift towards a new normal needs to be addressed, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can be that guy with his energy and likability. It's the most overused cliche, but MKG really is a winner, and he doesn't seem like the guy who should flounder.
Michael Jordan is reportedly not high on MKG and that's probably because of the likelihood he could never been a playoff team's best player. But the former Wildcat has publicly called Bobcats guard Kemba Walker as a monster, and the two would likely fit well together.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as an NBA player is an incredibly fascinating thought; a bar room argument that may lead to no final word or right answer.
I would take him as the number two pick, but I'd also make that selection with the understanding that my true franchise player is still waiting to be signed in an future free agency period or NBA Draft.
Kidd-Gilchrist is going to become a very important guy, just not the guy, at the next level. How general manager's value what he can contribute will determine where he is selected in a few weeks.